Update 11/20/07 - The popular press now carries the story. Here are a few excerpts from the Washington Post's coverage:
The United Nations' top AIDS scientists plan to acknowledge this week that they have long overestimated both the size and the course of the epidemic, which they now believe has been slowing for nearly a decade, according to U.N. documents prepared for the announcement. . .
The latest estimates, due to be released publicly Tuesday, put the number of annual new HIV infections at 2.5 million, a cut of more than 40 percent from last year's estimate, documents show. The worldwide total of people infected with HIV -- estimated a year ago at nearly 40 million and rising -- now will be reported as 33 million.
James Chin, a former World Health Organization AIDS expert who has long been critical of UNAIDS, said that even these revisions may not go far enough. He estimated the number of cases worldwide at 25 million.
"If they're coming out with 33 million, they're getting closer. It's a little high, but it's not outrageous anymore," Chin, author of "The Aid Pandemic: The Collision of Epidemiology with Political Correctness," said from Berkeley, Calif.
Me: So what does this tell us? It tells me that one has to be suspicious of U.N. statistics. The estimate of AIDS patients in India was lowered by 50%, from six million to three million!! - What does that tell us about statistics and accuracy?? - One must also be suspicious of issues being politicized. Certain groups have a vested interest in keeping the money flowing into their coffers. As James Chin said, "They've finally got caught with their pants down." Read the WaPo article cited above for sober comments of the same type.
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This two-part analysis needs to be studied carefully in order to get a true perspective on the AIDS crisis. Part I is here. Part II can be found here. (HT: VirtueOnline)