As of this writing, I think Barry Rubin's piece is the most thoughtful, informed, and accurate of anything I have read. He's the director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. In 2010 he published The Muslim Brotherhood: A Global Islamist Movement (Palgrave-Macmillan, 2010) and before that Islamic Fundamentalism in Egyptian Politics, Second Revised Edition Palgrave Press (2002, 2008).
He writes in his current article saying:
There is no good policy for the United States regarding the uprising in Egypt but the Obama Administration may be adopting something close to the worst option. This is its first real international crisis. And it seems to be adopting a policy that, while somewhat balanced, is pushing the Egyptian regime out of power. The situation could not be more dangerous and might be the biggest disaster for the region and Western interests since the Iranian revolution three decades ago.
Experts and news media seem to be overwhelmingly optimistic, just as they generally were in Iran's case. Wishful thinking is to some extent replacing serious analysis. Indeed, the alternative outcome is barely presented: This could lead to an Islamist Egypt, if not now in several years.
What's puzzling here is that a lot of the enthusiasm is based on points like saying that the demonstrators are leaderless and spontaneous. But that's precisely the situation where someone who does have leaders, is well organized, and knows precisely what they want takes over. . . .
This is the article to read if you read no other. Read the whole thing. It's important. (HT: Powerline via Jim Hoft)
Update 2/2/11 - Kathryn Jean Lopez conducts a follow-up interview with Rubin here. Again, this man strikes me as one of the most experienced, sober-minded commentators available. Excerpt:
[...] And I also have seen that many of the people proclaiming there is nothing to worry about now have been wrong over and over again in the past. They were wrong about the Iranian revolution, the PLO, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Turkish regime, Hamas, Algeria, al-Qaeda, and much more. A few days before the September 11 attack, an article came out in a magazine criticizing me for warning of the threat from revolutionary Islamist terrorist groups, saying that this was a fantasy.
And finally, another ignored or misunderstood factor is the regional situation. On one hand, I constantly hear from Arabs, Turks, and Iranians, as well as Israelis and people from other countries, that they have lost faith in the United States as a reliable ally Have no doubt, this will further undermine that feeling. Those who can are moving toward making deals with Iran or at least avoiding conflict with those they think are destined to be victorious. . . .