Muddling Toward Maturity Blog

WATCH: ISRAEL'S NETANYAHU OFFERS TO HELP PEOPLE SUFFERING IN IRAN'S DROUGHT

From the Daily Wire 6/11/18:

On Sunday, in an extraordinary message to the people of Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the severe water shortages in Iran and not only offered to help the Iranian people with words, but actions. He announced the creation of a Farsi webite that will show how Iranians can recycle their wastewater and Iranian farmers can save their crops and feed their families.

The Daily Wire again:

As The New York Times reported in January, at one point Iran suffered a drought for 14 consecutive years. The Times noted that after the 1979 revolution that brought the Iranian mullahs to power, the government urged farmers to plant wheat throughout the country, giving farmers inexpensive electricity and favorable prices, which stimulated more planting and the extraction of more and more groundwater. Claudia Sadoff, who created a report for the World Bank on Iran’s water crisis, stated, “25 percent of the total water that is withdrawn from aquifers, rivers and lakes exceeds the amount that can be replenished” by nature.

 The text of Netanyahu’s message follows::

JARED KUSHNER'S EFFECTIVE MIDDLE EAST DIPLOMACY

Kushner's perspective and progress confounds older students of the Middle East.  He grasped certain truths quickly:

. . . First, he recognizes that Iran now matters more to the Arabs than Palestine. With Iran and Islamic militants threatening the survival of major Arab states, many Arab leaders have quietly decided to align with Israel—dialing down their interest in the Palestinian drama. . . . 

Second, Kushner realizes that younger Arab generation has a fundamentally different perspective from that of its elders. More than 60 percent of Arabs are too young to remember the 1967 and 1973 wars with Israel, and many more regard them as ancient history. . . 

Kushner is trusted by key players.    [more . . .]

INTERVIEW WITH VETERAN MIDDLE EAST AMBASSADOR RYAN CROCKER

https://ricochet.com/podcast/q-and-a/man-middle-east/

I listened to this 43 minute interview last night and found it full of information and insight.  The Ricochet blurb introduces the Crocker interview this way:

Ryan Crocker is one of the outstanding U.S. diplomats of our time. In addition to his other posts, he was ambassador to Lebanon, Kuwait, Syria, Pakistan, Iraq, and Afghanistan. He has had some of the most challenging assignments on offer. George W. Bush, in the last days of his presidency, hung the Presidential Medal of Freedom around Crocker’s neck.

In this “Q&A,” Jay asks Crocker about the State Department today. Along with others, Crocker has sounded the alarm about cuts to the Foreign Service. He and Jay also take a tour of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and other countries, discussing matters past, present, and future.

One of the dismaying things I learned is that presently the U.S. has no Ambassador in Saudi Arabia!

ISRAEL'S SOLUTION FOR A WATER-STARVED WORLD

A friend emailed me this review of Seth M. Siegel's book, Let There be Water: Israels Solution for a Water-Starved World.   It's a story that needs to be told. Kudos to the engineering feats of the Israelis.  They deserve enormous credit for what they have done and for their generosity in sharing the technology with others.  But the hatred for Israel will likely mute the praise.  Here's the review:

This book will make you cry. Or stamp your feet or beat your head against a wall.

The narrative is familiar. Israel, a (once) poor country in the middle of an arid space, surrounded by enemies, finds a way to make the desert bloom. Then, Israel finds a way to extend what it learned about water to other countries – poor and not poor. If it was only that, it would be a great story. But it is more. Israel has found a way to change the equation between people, money, water, and nature.

In "Let There be Water", Seth M. Siegel begins with the early Zionist pioneers, talks the reader through technologies for water management, leak control, sewage treatment, desalination and conservation. He takes on pricing and social pressures for conservation, as well as park and river cleanup, and water for improving the quality of life in dry cities such as Beersheva. Did you know that straining out toilet paper from sewage can provide cellulosic material for use in the pulp and paper industry? That household cooking oil can be skimmed from sewage and recycled into industrial applications? That 85 percent of sewage can be reclaimed and recycled? Israel is aiming for 90 percent; the average in the U.S. is 8 percent.

Israel changed what it grew – giving up cotton and beef cattle as being too water-intensive – and started water policy and technology outreach to Africa, the U.S., China, India, Iran, and South America.

So why cry?

Because UC Berkeley in Oakland, CA is the heart of the BDS movement – boycott, disinvestment and sanction – against Israel; nasty, ugly and often anti-Semitic. But a 2014 Memorandum of Understanding between the State of California and Israel called for cooperation between California and Israeli businesses and universities. With no nod to irony or hypocrisy, Berkeley was one of the first to find projects on which it could cooperate with Israel. "Never mind that BDS in the corner; let's have Israel help California."

So why beat your head against a wall?

Because when you get to Chapter 9 and read about the self-defeating nature of the Palestinian Authority and the Hamas leadership in Gaza, you begin to understand the real reason there is no "peace process" between Israel and its near neighbors. The Palestinian leadership insists that Israel owes them water regardless of what they do or don't do to conserve, maintain, or use it wisely. Palestinians go about drilling illegal wells, tossing raw sewage, and refusing maintenance on leaks. And, "starting in 2008 and accelerating since 2010, the PA has chosen to use water as one key area of non-cooperation with Israel."

QUICK TAKES

    ** On Iraq - Historian Victor Davis Hanson on the Iraq war    The sort of serious analysis and reporting never seen found in mainstream writing (which incidentally throws Trump down from his pedestal)  UPDATE 3/15/16 -  Jay Nordinger's audio interview with Victor Davis Hanson

 

    ** Evangelical leaders on picking a Presidential nominee - Interesting "inside" stuff 

 

    ** Andrew C. McCarthy (the sharpest and most reliable mind around when it comes to Islam and terrorism) writes:  "Why Closing Gitmo is still a terrible idea."

 

    ** Charles Cooke - electing Trump would be "an unmitigated, unalloyed, potentially unsalvageable disaster"  Cooke says Trump must be stopped:  

 

The anti-Trump forces that still make up the majority of the Republican coalition must begin an expedited Manhattan Project, the sole aim of which is to bring down the front-runner piece by unpleasant piece. “If not us, who?” Ronald Reagan asked in the heat of the 1981 budget battle. “If not now, when?” Time to go nuclear, chaps.

CAROLINE GLICK - SAUDI ARABIA LOOKS TO PAKISTAN FOR NUCLEAR DEFENSE

Carolyn Glick explains the ins and outs of the fragile Middle East as few others can.  Virtually everything she writes is a must-read.   

Speaking in the military garrison town of Rawalpindi, Pakistani Army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif said that any Iranian threat to Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity will “wipe Iran off the map.”

Sharif made the statement following his meeting with Saudi Arabia’s defense minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to media reports, Salman was the second senior Saudi official to visit Pakistan in the past week amid growing tensions between Iran and the kingdom.

Glick proceeds to discuss Pakistan as a failed state, and the outlook for Saudi Arabia and other Arab states.   Read on....

 ** On a different matter, I was sorry to read that the Kurdish Communist organization (YPG) attacked an Assyrian Christian village in northern Syria

Most in the United States are familiar with the Kurds of Iraq, and how, after suffering under Saddam Hussein, they are striving for their own nation. What many do not know is that in places like Syria, Kurds are hoping for the same thing but want, not unlike the Islamic State, a Kurdish nation emptied of all non-Kurdish peoples. While it is true that in Syria Kurds have been fighting an off-again, on-again “hot war” with ISIS, they have also been waging a slower, grinding “cold war” against the Christians, especially in Northern Syria.

ISIS GENOCIDE AGAINST CHRISTIANS REQUIRES U.S./EUROPEAN RESCUE

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, "Saving Christians From ISIS Persecution, Chloe Valdary says:

 . . .  It is ISIS policy to kidnap and rape Christian women and girls. The terrorist group has razed Christian sites, including monasteries dating to the fifth century. Last October the ISIS magazine Dabiq referred to Christians as “crusaders” and vowed to kill “every Crusader possible.”

That should remind Western policy makers: Christians are not random victims, caught in the maw of Mideast strife. They are targets of genocide, much like the Jews during World War II. This entitles them to broad protection under the 1951 U.N. Genocide Convention, to which the U.S. is a signatory.

It is also worth noting that because Christians in Iraq and Syria are facing genocide—as opposed to displacement—there is a limited window for rescue. Unlike the thousands of refugees pouring into Europe, who are mostly escaping the violence driven by the sectarian war in Syria, Christians are facing a targeted campaign of annihilation. The U.S. ought to take that distinction into consideration when prioritizing the resettlement of the additional 30,000 refugees the country is slated to absorb over the next two years.  [Read the whole article..]

DENNIS PRAGER - "EUROPE IS MAKING A FATAL MISTAKE"

Jews in 1938 are not a parallel case of the Middle East refugees looking for a homeland today.  Dennis Prager explains why not:

 Allowing millions of Syrians and others from the Muslim Middle East into Europe will end up a catastrophe for Europe, and therefore for the West.

This may be the most difficult sentence I have ever written. Little seems more obviously moral than to allow these benighted Syrians, Iraqis and others to flee from hell into heaven. Therefore, arguing against allowing large numbers of them into Europe (and the United States) seems to be advocating for something that is heartless and just morally wrong.

Also, as a Jew, I am particularly sensitive to any parallels to the Holocaust. And looking at photos and videos of families trying to escape Syria, where two monsters — the Assad regime and the Islamic State — are devouring each other and hundreds of thousands in their way, how can I not think back to a time when Jews sought to escape the Nazi monster devouring them?

It was precisely this thinking that led the distinguished former chief rabbi of the United Kingdom, Jonathan Sacks, to write a moving column for The Guardian, comparing the Syrian refugees to the Jews of Europe before and during the Holocaust:

"One of the dark moments in that history occurred in July 1938, when representatives of 32 countries gathered in the French spa town of Evian to discuss the humanitarian disaster that everyone knew was about to overtake the Jews of Europe wherever Hitler's Germany held sway. Jews were desperate to leave. ... Yet country after country shut its doors. Nation after nation in effect said it wasn't their problem."

How does an ethically motivated person — Jew or non-Jew — deal with the emotionally powerful Holocaust argument?

For one thing, the parallels are far from precise. 

Every Jew in Nazi-occupied Europe — man, woman, child, baby — was targeted for death. The Syrian people are not targeted for death. The only such targets in the Middle East — aside from the Jews of Israel — are Christians and Yazidis, every one of whom should most definitely be allowed into Europe and the United States. 

The parallel is also imprecise because the vast majority of the Jews of Germany and many other European countries were assimilated citizens of their respective countries, who thoroughly embraced Western culture and values. In contrast, most of the Muslims of the Middle East — and the largely Muslim population (from non-Arab countries) already in Europe — hold values that are not merely different from, but opposed to, those of Europe. 

It is not as if Europe has no experience with large numbers of Muslim immigrants. And the experience has been largely negative. Most European countries are bad at assimilating people from other cultures, especially from Muslim cultures. And large numbers of people from Muslim cultures are bad at assimilating into non-Muslim cultures.

Many Muslim immigrants in the UK, France and Sweden live in Muslim ghettoes and have not assimilated. Moreover, and of particular importance, children of the immigrants — the ones born and raised in European countries — are usually the most radical and anti-Western. It is worth recalling that the 9/11 terror attack on America was planned by Muslim immigrants living in Germany. Muhammad Atta, the leader, Ramzi bin al-Shibh, Ziad Jarrah, Said Bahaji and Marwan al-Shehhi had lived in Germany for between five and eight years respectively. Bahaji was born in Germany. 

Without Pax Americana in the Middle East, a Saudi–Iranian Arms Race Is All but Inevitable

David Pryce-Jones writes with particular clear-headedness:

Not so long ago the foreign policy of the United States in the Middle East rested on the two pillars of Iran and Saudi Arabia. As long as the United States behaved like the superpower it was, the course of events could be predicted and stability therefore maintained. Everyone in the region takes it for gra

Confusion began when Ayatollah Khomeini humiliated the United States and went unpunished for it. Now President Obama’s deal with Iran certifies that the United States has renounced power altogether. Fired up by supposition of their superior power, crowds in the street burn effigies of the hapless American president in the belief they have reduced him to a laughing stock.

It doesn’t stop there. Iran differs from the Arab world in ethnicity and in the type of practice of Islam, but nevertheless they share the same autocratic culture. Its rulers will do whatever they think is necessary to maximize and preserve power. In June this year, for instance, the Saudis executed in public their hundredth victim. The condemnation to flogging and death of Raif Badawi simply for proposing to discuss reform is particularly horrifying. Amnesty International, the human-rights body, says that so far this year Iran has executed in public 694 victims and may exceed 1,000 by December. An average of two or three people are hanged every day. Deals of any kind with regimes like that are admissions of weakness and willingness to be humiliated.

No longer pillars held together by Pax Americana, Iran and Saudi Arabia are left to test which of them now has power to come out on top. All manner of unsuspected alliances and enmities may emerge. The outcome is unpredictable except in one respect: The nuclear weapon is the ultimate guarantee of power, and both parties will do everything necessary to obtain it. When the stakes are so high, agreements on paper, signatures, assurances, legalisms of all sorts, are worthless. Worse still, the whole concept of coming to a deal qualifying power proves only that President Obama and his associates are dangerously out of touch with reality.

HOW YEMEN FITS IRAN PLANS FOR MIDEAST RULE, BEYOND

 

Erick Stakelbeck,  CBN News correspondent, reports:

WASHINGTON – The remaining Americans have been evacuated from the country of Yemen. The United States closed its embassy because of the violence after a radical Islamic rebellion in the country.

The news comes as Iran is expanding its influence in the Middle East while building a nuclear program that shows no signs of stopping.

Yemen is an important part of Iran's strategy.

When a radical Shiite Muslim group, called the Houthis, seized Yemen's capital city last year, it marked a dangerous phase for a country plagued by violent chaos.

Located on the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen is already home to an al Qaeda branch that has attempted several attacks against the United States and Europe.

"WORLD'S MOST PERSECUTED MINORITY" -- CHRISTIANS

Raymond Ibrahim does an excellent job spotlighting the persecution of Christians in the Middle East and the Western media's failure to give serious attention to this reality.  Ibrahim is the author of Crucified Again: Exposing Islam's New War on Christians.

 

TheBlaze introduces the video saying:

Author Raymond Ibrahim has produced a new video for Prager University that reveals what he says is the most “persecuted religious group in the world today.”

Christians — mainly those living in Middle Eastern countries — face the harshest treatment at the hands of fundamentalist Muslims who, many times, torment and kill them simply because of their faith, according to Ibrahim.

“I’m not talking about ‘War on Christmas’ type harassment,” he said in the new Prager University video. “I’m talking about, ‘know your place or we’re going to kill you persecution.’”

The author said that 20 percent of the population in North Africa and the Middle East was Christian 100 years ago, but that the proportion has since decreased to just 4 percent.

“Muslims are rendering North Africa and the Middle East free of Christians,” he said, noting that businesses have been torched, young girls have been abducted and acts of violence have been committed.

Ibrahim added, “Christians are being persecuted in Muslim countries, because they’re Christians or, as the Koran puts it, infidels — that is non-Muslims who are regarded by many fundamentalist Muslims as inferior.”

World Ignores Christian Exodus from Islamic World

Raymond Ibrahim has provided the best concise overview of recent persecution of Christians in the Middle East currently available.  He writes: (dated 8/8/2014)

While the world fixates on the conflict between Israel and Hamas—and while most mainstream media demonize Israel for trying to survive amid a sea of Arab-Islamic hostility—similar or worse tragedies continue to go virtually ignored.

One of the most ancient Christian communities in the world, that of Iraq—which already had been decimated over the last decade, by Islamic forces unleashed after the ousting of Saddam Hussein—has now been wiped out entirely by the new “caliphate,” the so-called Islamic State, formerly known by the acronym “ISIS.”

As Reuters reported:

Islamist insurgents have issued an ultimatum to northern Iraq’s dwindling Christian population to either convert to Islam, pay a religious levy or face death, according to a statement distributed in the militant-controlled city of Mosul….

It said Christians who wanted to remain in the “caliphate” that the Islamic State declared this month in parts of Iraq and Syria must agree to abide by terms of a “dhimma” contract—a historic practice under which non-Muslims were protected in Muslim lands in return for a special levy known as “jizya.”

“We offer them three choices: Islam; the dhimma contract—involving payment of jizya; if they refuse this they will have nothing but the sword,” the announcement said.

The amount of jizya-money demanded was $450 a month, an exorbitant sum for Iraq.

Hours after the demand for jizya was made, Islamists began painting the letter “n” on Christian homes in Mosul—in Arabic, Christians are known as “Nasara,” or “Nazarenes”—signaling them out for the slaughter to come.

Most Christians have since fled. A one-minute video in Arabic of their exodus appears here—women and children weeping as they flee their homes—a video that will not be shown by any Western mainstream media outlet, busy as they are depicting instead nonstop images of Palestinian women and children.

BILL WHITTLE: THE CASE FOR ISRAEL

As Israel is under attack from Hamas in the Gaza strip and BDS -- Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions -- right here in America, Bill Whittle makes the historical and moral case for Israel, and shows just who, indeed, are the tyrants and aggressors in the Middle East.

 

Transcript:

Even before the recent Israeli ground and air operations in Gaza, the BDS movement - that would stand for Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions - was gaining traction... not just in France, or Germany, or Oman: right here in America. 

BDS is being sold - as everything evil and stupid is being sold these days - as a moral good. The argument goes like this: Israel, a nation formed in response to the cold, concrete reality of extermination, has let its economic and military power go to its head. They, now, are the oppressors; they now are Goliath in a main battle tank facing a brave Palestinian David with a rock in his hand; they now are the racists. They now - Israel - are the Nazis.

Are they?

Here is Israel at the time of its formation by the United Nations in 1948. Actually, you can't see it on this map because it's so small - smaller than the state of New Jersey. 

McCarthy: Only Chance for Peace in Middle East Is If Hamas Loses

Andrew C. McCarthy is totally correct.

 

Cf. Rich Lowry, "Hamas' Useful Idiots"

Paul Alster -  Israel surprised by number and sophistication of Gaza tunnels (photos)

Andrew McCarthy - Cruz: Is Obama' FAA Ban the Launch of an Economic Boycott of Israel?

JOHN BOLTON - RAMIFICATIONS OF OBAMA'S MIDDLE EAST FOREIGN POLICY RADICALISM

John Bolton, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, says:

Americans must realize that we are seeing not merely a series of separate U.S. policy failures or a run of bad luck in the Middle East. Obama is presiding over declining American influence and prestige because he thinks we are too powerful, too dominant in the world. And so, by extension, are our allies in the region, especially Israel.

The indisputable evidence demonstrates that Obama's guiding ideology is as radical in international affairs as in domestic policy. Just as he wants to “spread the wealth around” domestically, so too he is at ease in “spreading” U.S. power around internationally. We will pay for Obama's radicalism for years to come.

Read the entire article for an incisive analysis of what is happening in the Middle East.  The article begins:

Under Barack Obama, American influence in the Middle East has sunk to levels not seen since before World War II. From Israel to Saudi Arabia, from Egypt to the United Arab Emirates, our friends are shaking their heads, wondering why we have seemingly taken leave of our senses.

Across this vital region, Obama is effectively empowering our opponents and turning his back on U.S. supporters and allies. He has openly courted implacable adversaries like Tehran's ayatollahs and the Muslim Brotherhood, allowed Chinese penetration to reach unprecedented levels and restored Russian clout to pre-1979 proportions. . .  [more...]

THINKING CLEARLY ON SYRIA - Bill Muehlenberg

Bill Muehlenberg, one of the most perceptive Christian bloggers writing today, offers a helpful analysis of the Middle East Syria crisis. He titles his piece simply "On Syria" and writes:

One thing that can be said with some degree of certainty is that the situation in Syria is a mess. Then again, that largely describes things in all of the Middle East as well. This is one messed up part of the world, and no easy solutions present themselves to any number of problems found there.

But the situation has just been ratcheted up a notch – indeed, a huge notch – by Obama wanting to take America into war again. His insistence on taking some sort of action – no matter how ill-conceived or little thought through – makes this whole scenario now the stuff of front page news.

Indeed, with all the sabre-rattling going on now from a number of players, talk of WWIII erupting is not mere rhetoric. So this is serious stuff which needs sober analysis. And that is largely lacking in so many quarters. There seems to be far too much sloppy thinking and confusion about all this.

While I do not claim to be an expert on the matter, I am happy to draw upon the expertise of others as I very briefly examine a number of relevant points in this debate. They are by no means the only considerations here, but they are some crucial ones nonetheless.

Where is the anti-war left?

Given the fact that at any moment Obama may have military strikes being launched against Syria, one of the most obvious questions to be asked is just where are all the peaceniks and lefties? Just imagine if this were Bush in office: all hell would have broken loose by now, and there would be rioting in the streets.

Every lefty in the nation would be doing mass protests with all the usual lame rhetoric: “Stop US imperialism,” “End the occupation,” “No blood for oil” etc. Yet all we seem to hear at the moment is crickets chirping. So evidently American aggression overseas is not wrong in itself – only if Republicans do it. But if Obama is behind it, then it must be just fine. Yes, I understand how the left thinks here. What was that word starting in ‘h’ and ending in ‘ypocrisy’?

RALPH PETERS - MIDDLE EAST GENOCIDE

This hard-hitting historical survey should be filed away for ready reference.  Originally published in the New York Post, I found it at VirtueOnline.  Peters writes:

We are witnesses to murder, and our governments are accomplices. The relentless destruction of the last remnants of the Middle East's Judeo-Christian civilization is well under way. And we are silent.

Captives of political correctness, our governments cater to radical immigrant tantrums as our leaders contort the truth to deny the existence of Islamist terrorism. Meanwhile, our Middle Eastern "allies" and foes alike eradicate thousands of years of Jewish and Christian heritage. Our diplomats treat the persecution as a minor embarrassment, best ignored.

The banishments and butchery aren't new, but the breakdown of the last rotting order in the wake of the "Arab Spring" has empowered psychotic fanatics who do not even value the lives of the faithful, let alone the lives of unbelievers. This is the end-game, the final persecution of Christians clinging to lands they've called home for 2,000 years. Except for Israel and the rarest exceptions elsewhere, Jews are already gone from the realms that nurtured them since the early years of their faith.

A thousand years ago, there were more Christians in the Middle East than in Europe, and Jewish communities prospered from the Nile to the Tigris. 

Even a century ago, more than 20% of the region's population was Christian, and Jews still adorned Arab cities with their talents. Today, estimates put the Christian population of the region at under 5% and sinking rapidly - and only that high because of the 9 million Copts who remain, for now, in Egypt.

MASS EXODUS OF CHRISTIANS FROM MUSLIM WORLD IGNORED BY MEDIA

I think this an unbelievable atrocity and no one (or very few) seem to be exercised about it.   Raymond Ibrahim writes:    HT: Drudge

A mass exodus of Christians is currently underway.  Millions of Christians are being displaced from one end of the Islamic world to the other. 

We are reliving the true history of how the Islamic world, much of which prior to the Islamic conquests was almost entirely Christian, came into being.

The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom recently said: “The flight of Christians out of the region is unprecedented and it’s increasing year by year.”  In our lifetime alone “Christians might disappear altogether from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Egypt.”

Ongoing reports from the Islamic world certainly support this conclusion:  Iraq was the earliest indicator of the fate awaiting Christians once Islamic forces are liberated from the grip of dictators.

In 2003, Iraq’s Christian population was at least one million. Today fewer than 400,000 remain—the result of an anti-Christian campaign that began with the U.S. occupation of Iraq, when countless Christian churches were bombed and countless Christians killed, including by crucifixion and beheading.   

The 2010 Baghdad church attack, which saw nearly 60 Christian worshippers slaughtered, is the tip of a decade-long iceberg.

Now, as the U.S. supports the jihad on Syria’s secular president Assad, the same pattern has come to Syria: entire regions and towns where Christians lived for centuries before Islam came into being have now been emptied, as the opposition targets Christians for kidnapping, plundering, and beheadings, all in compliance with mosque calls telling the populace that it’s a “sacred duty” to drive Christians away.

In October 2012 the last Christian in the city of Homs—which had a Christian population of some 80,000 before jihadis came—was murdered.  One teenage Syrian girl said: “We left because they were trying to kill us… because we were Christians….  Those who were our neighbors turned against us. At the end, when we ran away, we went through balconies. We did not even dare go out on the street in front of our house.”

KIRSTEN POWERS - MIDDLE EAST CHRISTIANS NEED OUR PROTECTION

It's encouraging to see a TV commentator writing a column for USA Today on persecution of Christians, perhaps the most underreported story of our day!  Her column bears the subtitle:  "Christians are harassed in more countries -- 130 -- than any other religion in the world.   She writes: 

"Christianity is the most persecuted religion in the world." So asserted German Chancellor Angela Merkel late last year, causing a stir. Merkel echoed a concern expressed by then-French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who warned in a 2011 speech that Christians face a "particularly wicked program of cleansing in the Middle East, religious cleansing."

Not 'War on Christmas'

Now, this is not about clerks who say "Happy Holidays" or bans of nativity scenes in public schools. Merkel spoke of real persecution ofhundreds of millions of Christians around the world. Indeed, a 2011 Pew Forum study found that Christians are harassed in 130 countries, more than any of the world's other religions.

The just-released book Persecuted: The Global Assault on Christians provides the gory details behind these statistics. Persecuted is a collaboration of the Hudson Institute's Nina Shea, Paul Marshall and Lela Gilbert to catalog the human rights abuses visited upon Christian believers from North Korea to Mali. They define this persecution as Christians "who are tortured, raped, imprisoned, or killed for their faith." It's a worldwide phenomenon, but Shea points out a troubling acceleration in the cradle of Christianity's birth: the Middle East and North Africa. As London Guardian columnist Rupert Shortt wrote in January, "The religious ecology of the Middle East looks more fragile than ever, as the Arab Spring gives way to Christian Winter."  

Tragically, Christians have been forced to abandon homelands they have occupied for thousands of years. Up to two-thirds of Christians have fled Iraq in the past ten years to escape massacres, church burnings and constant death threats. ManyChristians fled to Syria, where they are experiencing persecution anew. In Iran, U.S. pastor Saeed Abedini has been sentenced to eight years in prison for preaching Christianity. . . . 

[more . . .]

ARE YOU RECEIVING ACCURATE MIDDLE EAST NEWS?

Yesterday a friend told me about a website that tracks the accuracy of news reporting on the Middle East.  I'm glad to know about it and commend it to you.  The website is called camera.org.    "Camera" stands for Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America.  Check it out here - http://www.camera.org/

OBAMA'S QUESTIONABLE SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL

Questionable indeed.  The following video gives an overview of Obama's treatment of Israel.  Many Jews are rethinking their traditional Democratic voting habits.  Barry Rubin: "No Jewish American should vote for Obama on the belief that he is a great friend of Israel."   (More on the changing Jewish vote beneath the video).

From Stella Paul, writing in the American Thinker, "Obama, Oy Vey!  Americanb Jews Finally Have Had Enough." 

"Two Jews, three opinions" goes the famous joke. And every day, more of those opinions turn pro-Romney, as American Jews increasingly reject the collapsing presidency of Barack Hussein Obama.

Romney's surging poll numbers in the crucial state of Florida reflect his growing success with Bubbie Molly and her unemployed grandson Adam, who both thought their right hand would wither if it ever pulled the lever for a Republican.

The signs and portents are everywhere, beginning with the special election of a Republican in Anthony Weiner's heavily Jewish, New York congressional district one year ago. Now a startling new poll even has Romney performing the ultimate miracle: the parting of the blue states, winning the Jewish vote by a healthy 44% to 40%!

Florida activist Alan Bergstein described his recent experience advocating for Romney in the Jewish stronghold of Delray Beach. "Of about 100 entering and leaving the Bagel Tree eatery in that plaza, we ran into only two Democrats and loads and loads of Romney supporters. They stopped to talk to us, to congratulate us and to support us with their views of the Ryan/Biden debate. They were militant and fearless."

What's driving the Jewish exodus from the Democratic Party? Like everyone else, Jews are singing the bad economy blues. But they're also increasingly acknowledging the uncomfortable facts about Obama's hostility towards Israel and its Jewish supporters.

"Absolutely Uncertain," a 20-minute YouTube video starring 23-year-old Irina, a disillusioned Obama voter who analyzes the president's harsh treatment of Israel, racked up an astonishing 650,000 views in just three days. The Republican Jewish Coalition's video, "Perilous Times," is closing in on a million views, as anxious Jewish voters seek information outside the mainstream media to understand the accelerating nuclear threat to Israel from Iran.

 

PRAYING THROUGH THE MUSLIM FILM CRISIS

Elizabeth Kendal offers helpful analysis on how to "pray through the [Muslim] riots."

Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin | RLPB 177 | Wed 19 Sep 2012

PRAYING THROUGH THE RIOTS

By Elizabeth Kendal

The current 'Film riots' bear many similarities to the 'Cartoon Intifada' of February 2006. The Danish cartoons had been published months earlier -- even republished in Cairo during Ramadan (Nov 2005) -- to no effect. Similarly, the offensive film, 'Innocence of Muslims', has been available on Youtube for many months. The 'Cartoon Intifada' was incited by Arab-Islamic leaders ahead of the scheduled April 2006 sitting of the UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC). It was anticipated that at that sitting the UN Special Rapporteur on contemporary forms of racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related intolerance would present his conclusion as to whether or not defamation of religion should be banned. Similarly, the 'Film riots' were initially incited (so it seems) by Islamists, as a cover for planned 9/11 'revenge' attacks on US embassies in Cairo and Benghazi. Because decades of radicalisation have created a tinderbox, Islamists only need to strike a spark to get the fire of arrogant, hateful rage burning. Fanned by social media, it spread quickly around the globe.

As with the cartoons, the film is far less offensive than much of the anti-Christian material that offends, hurts and sickens Christians -- who do not riot. Indeed, the internet is full of anti-Islamic material that is far more offensive than the Danish cartoons or 'Innocence of Muslims'. For rioters, this is less about offence and more about the fact that Islam demands universal respect and criminalises non-submission. Meanwhile fear motivates the appeasers.

In praying through this crisis, there are three things we should particularly remember.

1. CHRISTIAN SECURITY
As security is tightened around embassies and US economic interests, Islamists may well turn their anger to softer targets with perceived US ties and/or sympathies such as Christians and churches. The riots could evolve into a grinding, communal jihad or terror campaign. We must pray concerning Christian security in these times, especially in places where Christians are already a persecuted, vulnerable minority. The situation for the Copts, Egypt's indigenous Christians, is especially perilous.

2. FREEDOM OF SPEECH
Islam's totalitarian, apostaphobic, religious dictators live in constant fear that, given a chance, the masses will apostasise (leave Islam). These religious dictators will doubtless seek to exploit the crisis to advance their goal of having criticism of Islam criminalised internationally. As was done after the Cartoon Intifada, the riots are being put forward as the reason why criticism of Islam must be banned. Muslims should regard this as profoundly offensive as it implies that they are easily provoked and incapable of responding in a civilised manner. On the other hand, non-Muslims should regard this as an Islamic threat.

The Grand Sheikh of Cairo's al-Azhar University, Professor Dr Ahmad at-Tayyib, has already released a statement calling on the UN to enact international laws that will punish those who insult or defame Islam. Egypt has issued arrest warrants for eight Americans (including seven Copts) who they charge have defamed Islam. They will be tried in absentia and may well be sentenced to death, possibly heralding a new wave of 'Salman Rushdies'. (On 16 September, Iran increased the bounty on Rushdie's head by half a million dollars to $US 3.3 million.) Egypt wants Interpol to issue wanted  notices [Red Notices] for the accused. Pakistan also has appealed to Interpol: for legislation that would ban 'sacrilegious [specifically anti-Islamic] materials' from the Internet. Pakistan aims to present draft legislation to the forthcoming UN General Assembly. We can also expect to see renewed efforts by the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC) for implementation of UN Resolution 16/18, 'Combating intolerance . .  . ', which equates 'defamation' with 'incitement'.

3. AWAKENING
If the terror attacks of 11 September 2001 left many nominal Muslims profoundly confused and conflicted, the Cartoon Intifada of February 2006 compounded those feelings into deep disillusionment. So revolted and embarrassed were most nominal Muslims by the sanctimonious hysteria, barbarity and uncivilised behaviour of hundreds of thousands of Muslims around the world that the trend of apostasy increased markedly through 2007. (See Religious Liberty Trends 2007-2008, 15 Feb 2008) We can pray for a similar awakening now.

PLEASE PRAY SPECIFICALLY THAT --

* the Holy Spirit will draw vulnerable, threatened Christians to find shelter under the 'wings' of the LORD. ' . . .  in the shadow of your wings I will take refuge, till the storms of destruction pass by.' (Psalm 57:1b ESV)

* God will use the struggle over free speech to expose hidden evil and awaken the world to the value of truth.  'Many are the plans in the mind of a man, but it is the purpose of the LORD that will stand.' (Proverbs 19:21 ESV)

* the current crisis will serve to awaken many Muslims and further accelerate the exodus from Islam. 

'The harvest is plentiful, but the labourers are few; therefore pray earnestly to the Lord of the harvest to send out labourers into his harvest'. (Matthew 9:37,38 ESV)

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PRAYING THROUGH THE RIOTS

Whilst the 'Film riots' may well have been incited by Islamists as a cover for planned 9/11 revenge attacks on US embassies in Cairo and Benghazi, they have spread around the world like 'fire'. For the rioters, this is less about offence and more about the fact that Islam demands universal respect and criminalises non-submission. Meanwhile fear motivates their appeasers. In this climate, Christian minorities are profoundly at risk. Freedom of speech is also at risk. We should expect to see efforts being made to punish those who have offended Islam, and to criminalise criticism of Islam internationally. Most critically, we must pray for an awakening amongst nominal Muslims who are appalled by the hysteria and uncivilised behaviour of hundreds of thousands of Muslims around the world.

CHRISTIANS IMPERILLED IN SYRIA, SUDAN, AND BURMA

I have the highest respect for Elizabeth Kendal who produces the invaluable Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin.   Here's the latest:  (the bolding is my own)

Religious Liberty Prayer Bulletin | RLPB 170 | Wed 01 Aug 2012

SYRIA, SUDAN, BURMA: THE BATTLES RAGE

By Elizabeth Kendal

SYRIA
On Sunday 29 July the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's Jim Middleton spoke to Prof. Vali Nasr about Syria's prospects. Nasr confirmed that al Qaeda was indeed gaining ground in Syria. He expressed concern that in the event of regime collapse, it is not clear who would 'prevent a massacre of the Alawites and the Christians and those Sunnis who supported Assad'. He also said it was not clear who would 'prevent al-Qaeda from setting up shop in various little emirates across Syria'. Furthermore, Nasr warned that should the regime fall 'in a bad way' then the whole region -- especially Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan -- will be massively impacted and destabilised.

THE BATTLE FOR ALEPPO
The battle for Aleppo is a decisive one. With a population of 2.5 million, Aleppo is Syria's second largest city after Damascus, and its commercial hub. Home to swaths of loyalist Sunni Arab and Kurdish business elite, Christians make up some 10 percent of the population of the city. Around half of them are Armenians, with the remainder belonging to the Syrian, Greek Orthodox and Maronite churches. Jihadists are pouring in for the battle. Syrian Sunni jihadists who have been fighting with al Qaeda against US forces in Iraq are returning home in droves. The West called them 'terrorists' in Iraq. In Syria it calls them 'rebels', 'insurgents' and 'opposition'. Furthermore foreign jihadists are coming in from the Caucasus, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, Algeria and Gulf Arab states as well as Europe, including Britain, Sweden and France. It is not uncommon to see the Islamist black flag flying on rebel vehicles or hoisted in rebel-held areas, yet Western journalists seem as oblivious to this as they are to the Islamist beards, chants and overt threats. Still holding out dreams of 'democracy' these journalists also seem oblivious to the long-term global consequences of Islamist sanctuaries in Syria.

It is reported that Aleppo's Armenian community has hunkered down for the duration.  Other Christians are doubtless doing the same. Some Christians, though, feel their only option is to take up arms to fight for the survival of their family. The battle has not yet reached the Christian quarters. However, a standard tactic in Islamist asymmetric warfare is to use women and children -- and Christians wherever possible -- as human shields and then exploit their deaths for propaganda in the West. Therefore we can expect jihadists will attempt to deliberately infiltrate Christian districts not only to kill Christians (whom they want to eliminate anyway) but also to draw the regime's return fire into those districts. Indeed, only the LORD of hosts can prevent this.

SUDAN AND BURMA
Watching and listening to the news, one could be forgiven for thinking that the Syrian conflict was the world's only war. On the contrary, regimes are waging war against predominantly Christian peoples in South Kordofan, Sudan and in Kachin State, Burma. The difference is, whilst the West is for regime change in Syria, it is against changing the brutal, Islamist, racist, Arab-supremacist regime in Khartoum, Sudan and the brutal, Buddhist-nationalist, racist Burman-supremacist regime in Burma. In each case, the Christians are on the wrong side of Western economic and geo-strategic interests! In each case, Christian peoples -- children, parents, the elderly -- are suffering immensely with hunger, tears, spilt blood and broken bones. However, this is being covered up continuously and without discernment by lazy, conformist media -- apparently ignorant of historical and religious realities -- who are echoing the official line. Surely God is NOT pleased.

For more on Syria, Sudan and Burma see Religious Liberty Monitoring.

PLEASE PRAY SPECIFICALLY THAT THE LORD OF HOSTS WILL --

* by the power of the Holy Spirit draw his people close and increase their faith so they will hope in him (Psalm 33:18) and see answers to their prayers (Isaiah 30:19); may the devil have no victory over them.

* rise up to defend, shield and supply his precious people and vanquish their enemies. (Isaiah 40:10,11)

* raise his right arm against all jihadists and jihadist-allied forces in Syria, the regime of Omar el-Bashir in Khartoum, Sudan, and the Burmese junta in Naypyidaw; may those who seek to annihilate God's precious children succeed only in securing God's furious wrath. (Isaiah 31:4,5).

'But my eyes are toward you, O GOD, my Lord; in you I seek refuge; leave me not defenceless! Keep me from the trap that they have laid for me and from the snares of evildoers! Let the wicked fall into their own nets, while I pass by safely. (Psalm 141:8-10 ESV)

With whole Christian communities facing existential threat, consider Psalm 33:8-19.

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THE BATTLES RAGE IN SYRIA, SUDAN and BURMA

The battle for Aleppo is decisive. Jihadists are pouring in from around the world for this battle, fighting not for Syria, but for Islam. The Christians, who comprise about 10 percent of Aleppo's 2.5 million population, are gravely imperilled. Whilst the fighting has not yet reached the Christian quarters, the jihadists doubtless know the propaganda coup they could score by drawing the regime's fire into the Christian districts. Please pray for God's protection. Meanwhile, wars continue to rage against Christian communities in South Kordofan, Sudan and Kachin State, Burma. In all these cases, the Christians are finding themselves on the wrong side of Western economic and geo-strategic 'interests'. Please pray for God to rise up on behalf of his precious people. 

CAROLINE GLICK - THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD WILL MORE AND MORE CONTROL EGYPT

(Note: See updates at the end of this post)

- As usual, Caroline Glick offers clear-headed analysis of recent events in Egypt.   She ferrets out facts while others dither and delude themselves.  [Bolding on the extended page is mine]

You have to hand it to the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. They know how to play power politics. They know how to acquire power. And they know how to use power.  . . . 

THE DIFFERENCE between the Brotherhood and the secularists is a fundamental one. The Brotherhood has always had a vision of the Egypt it wants to create. It has always used all the tools at its disposal to advance the goal of creating an Islamic state in Egypt.

For their part, the secularists have no ideological unity and so share no common vision of a future Egypt. They just oppose the repression of the military. Opposing repression is not a political program. It is a political act. It can destroy. It cannot rule. . . .

By permitting the Brotherhood to participate in the elections for parliament and the presidency, the military signed the death warrant of its regime. The Brotherhood will rule Egypt. The only thing left to be determined is whether its takeover will happen quickly or slowly.

To understand why this is the case, it is important to notice what happened in Turkey. When the Islamist AKP party won the 2002 elections, the Turkish military was constitutionally authorized to control the country. As the guardians of Turkey's secular state, Turkey's military was constitutionally empowered to overthrow democratically elected governments.

Ten years later, Turkey is a populist, authoritarian, Islamic state. Half the general officer corps is in prison, held without charge or on trumped up charges. Turkey's judiciary and civil service are controlled by Islamists. The AKP is filling the military's officer corps with its loyalists.

When you know what you want, you use all the tools at your disposal to achieve your goals. When you don't know what you want, no matter what tools you hold, you will fail to achieve your goals.

CAROLINE GLICK - U.S. THE GREATEST LOSER IN THE PAN-ARAB REVOLUTIONS

I think it hard for anyone to argue against Caroline Glick's analysis.  She writes:

[...] TO UNDERSTAND the depth and breadth of America's losses, consider that on January 25, 2011, most Arab states were US allies to a greater or lesser degree. Mubarak was a strategic ally. Saleh [President of Yemen] was willing to collaborate with the US in combating al- Qaida and other jihadist forces in his country.

Gaddafi was a neutered former enemy who had posed no threat to the US since 2004. Iraq was a protectorate. Jordan and Morocco were stable US clients.

One year later, the elements of the US's alliance structure have either been destroyed or seriously weakened. US allies like Saudi Arabia, which have yet to be seriously threatened by the revolutionary violence, no longer trust the US. As the recently revealed nuclear cooperation between the Saudis and the Chinese makes clear, the Saudis are looking to other global powers to replace the US as their superpower protector.

Perhaps the most amazing aspect to the US's spectacular loss of influence and power in the Arab world is that most of its strategic collapse has been due to its own actions. In Egypt and Libya the US intervened prominently to bring down a US ally and a dictator who constituted no threat to its interests. Indeed, it went to war to bring Gaddafi down.

JOEL ROSENBERG - "IS NETANYAHU SIGNALING A PREEMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST IRAN?"

Short answer: highly likely.  Rosenberg writes:

Speculation in Washington and the Middle East is suddenly intensifying about a possible Israeli preemptive military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Are these unsubstantiated or exaggerated rumors being stirred by the media or by Netanyahu’s enemies, or is the Netanyahu government is seriously contemplating going to war? The answer may be both.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his colleagues see Iran steadily getting closer to building operable nuclear warheads and the ballistic missiles and terror networks to deliver them. They hear apocalyptic rhetoric coming from the mouths of Iran’s leaders, threatening to annihilate the Jewish state in order to hasten the coming of their so-called messiah, the Twelfth Imam. They see Iran denying the reality of the first Holocaust, while aggressively preparing to cause a Second Holocaust. What Netanyahu and his team do not see is the Obama administration and the international community willing to take decisive action to stop Tehran before it’s too late. To the contrary, President Obama remains unwilling to change his failed “engagement” policy towards Iran, a policy that has resembled Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Adolf Hitler and that has given the mullahs nearly three more years to advance their nuclear ambitions.

Netanyahu spoke to the Knesset on Monday and delivered his most sobering warning yet about the magnitude of the Iran threat and the rising dangers Israel is facing throughout the Middle East. “If I had to summarize what will happen in our region, I would use two terms: instability and uncertainty,” Netanyahu told his parliamentary colleagues and his nation. “The collapse of Qaddafi’s regime in Libya, the bloody incidents in Syria, the American forces leaving Iraq, the new government in Tunisia, the upcoming elections in Egypt and many other events — these are all expressions of the immense changes occurring around us. These changes can increase the instability within these countries, and the instability between countries. … A nuclear Iran would pose a terrible threat on the Middle East and on the entire world. And of course, it poses a great, direct threat on us too.”

Then, Netanyahu made news. “A security philosophy cannot rely on defense alone,” he insisted. “It must also include offensive capabilities, which is the very foundation of deterrence. We operate and will continue to operate intensely and determinately against those who threaten the security of the State of Israel and its citizens. Our policy is guided by two main principles: the first is ‘If someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill him first,’ and the second is ‘If anyone harms us, his blood is on his own hands.’”

Over the past decade, I have not heard Netanyahu or his advisers discuss such principles so publicly and so clearly. There seems to be little question that the Prime Minister and his team are laying the moral and strategic framework for preemptive military action, both against the Hamas terrorists that are firing rockets and missiles at Israel from Gaza in the near term, and against state enemies such as the Islamic Republic of Iran in the not-too-distant future.

THE TRAGEDY LOOMING IN YEMEN

Daniel Pipes describes the looming tragedy more clearly and vividly than I've seen elsewhere.  The future looks chilling.  If anarchy weren't enough, there looms a shortage of food and water, and a massive human exodus.   Pipes foresees 

. . . an unprecedented emptying out of Yemen, with millions of unskilled and uninvited refugees, first in the Middle East, then in the West, many of them Islamist, demanding economic asylum.

The future looks ominous for many reasons. 

[...]  As a London Times headline put it, Yemen “could become first nation to run out of water.” Nothing this extreme has happened in modern times, although similar patterns of drought have developed in Syria and Iraq.

Scarce food resources, columnist David Goldman points out, threaten to leave large numbers of Middle Easterners hungry.  One-third of Yemenis faced chronic hunger before the unrest. That fraction is growing quickly.

The prospect of economic collapse looms larger by the day. Oil supplies are reduced to the point that “trucks and buses at petrol stations queue for hours, while water supply shortages and power blackouts are a daily norm,” according to the Arab Times. Productive activity is proportionately in decline.

If water and food shortages are not worrisome enough, Yemen has one of the highest birth rates in the world, exacerbating the resource problem. With an average of 6.5 children per woman, almost one woman out of every six is pregnant at any given time. Today’s population of 24 million is predicted to double in about 30 years.

Politics exacerbate the problem. If Saleh is history (as he likely is, since too many forces have arrayed against him for him to return to power, and the Saudis may not let him leave), his successor will have difficulty ruling even the meager portion of the country that he controlled.

Because many factions with diverse aims are competing for power — Saleh’s allies, Houthi rebels in the north, a secessionist movement in the south, al-Qaeda-style forces, a youth movement, the military, certain tribes, and the Ahmar family — they will not coalesce into a neat two-way conflict. Anarchy, in other words, looks more probable than civil war; Somalia and Afghanistan could be models. . . . [more..]

The Bible speaks of major famines . . .   It's all becoming a little too real.

SERIOUS DEVELOPMENT: YEMEN COULD SOON COME UNDER AL-QUAEDA CONTROL

Yemeni tribal chiefs have turned against Yemen’s president Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has reluctantly and inconsistently aligned his nation with the United States.  Now Saleh's power base seems to be falling apart.  Ed Morrissey says, "This could be the Obama administration’s biggest headache in the Arab uprisings of 2011, assuming they don’t spread to Saudi Arabia. . . 

Morrissey notes further:  [my emphases]

  AQ has been actively undermining Saleh for years, and its Yemeni branch has grown more active and dangerous over the last few years under the leadership of American citizen Anwar al-Awlaki. . . .

When Saleh falls, the US will face a nightmare scenario of AQ opportunity to seize control of a state, and one in a critical location on major sea lanes and near the richest sources of energy in the world.  Their first target will be Saudi Arabia and an attempt to seize Mecca and Medina by overthrowing the oppressive monarchy in Riyadh, Osama bin Laden’s ambition since starting AQ two decades ago.  Will Obama be prepared to deal with this outcome?  Given his disturbingly passive response to the uprisings thus far, confidence won’t exactly be high.

Serious developments indeed!

QUOTES ON THE MIDDLE EAST

Bernard Lewis, the dean of Middle East historians, says:  [my bolding]

The Obama administration should ponder something, as should we all: “At the moment, the general perception, in much of the Middle East, is that the United States is an unreliable friend and a harmless enemy. I think we want to give the exact opposite impression”: one of being a reliable friend and a dangerous enemy. “That is the way to be perceived.”

On the prospects of Egyptian democracy, Stanley Kurtz opines:

Successful democratic change like we saw in, say, South Korea, is based on the slow development of a substantial middle class with liberal mores. What’s brought Mubarak down is not the middle class thirst for democracy, but massive unemployment, corruption, and inflation, in a system whose traditional roots have long blocked modernization. This is not a scenario for successful democratization. Everywhere we’ve seen to date, it is a scenario for expanding Islamism.

Michael Walsh cites history to justify his pessimism:

Anyway, when you look at the course of revolution in the modern era, it’s always the same-old same-old:

•  
  • Czar Nicky — Kerensky — Lenin
  • Kaiser Willie — Weimar Republic — Hitler
  • Shah Pahlavi — Mr. Bani Sadr — Khomeini

Heck, we can even take it one step further:

•  
  • Gorbachev — Yeltsin — Putin

In other words, no matter the high intentions and democratic slogans, it always turns out badly in the end, especially in countries with, shall we say, a natural affinity for despotism.

Me: Let us hope and pray Egypt will be an exception 

UPDATE 2/2/11 - Amir Taheri offers a more optimistic take worth noting.  Mark Levin interviews the great Jerusalem Post columnist Caroline Glick here (audio).   Sobriety and fear can be heard in her voice.  Egypt is now a huge military powerhouse.  Actually, I think Fred Grandy's earlier audio interview with Caroline Glick is even more poignant.  In her MUST READ column, "Clueless in Washington", she writes:  (my emphases)

SHAMEFUL FAILURE OF THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION TO SUPPORT DEMOCRACY IN IRAN - AND CHINA

I remember well the silence of the Obama administration in 2009 when Iranians rose up in revolt against their rulers.  Fouad Ajami in a Wall Street Journal article today also recalls that moment.  He writes: (my bolding)

. . .  Mr. Obama had come into office with a belief that he knew and understood the Islamic world. He was proud that Islam was a strand in his identity. He was sure that the policy of his predecessor had antagonized Islam. President George W. Bush's "diplomacy of freedom" was not given the grace of a decent burial. "Ideology is so yesterday," Secretary Clinton proudly proclaimed in early 2009. Realpolitik was to be the order of the day.

The Bush diplomacy had declared an open ideological assault against the Iranian theocracy. Mr. Obama would offer that regime an olive branch and a promise of engagement. Syria had been pushed out of Lebanon and viewed as a renegade regime that had done its best to frustrate the American war in Iraq. The Obama diplomacy would offer the rulers in Damascus diplomatic rehabilitation.

Thus the word went forth to the despots in the region that the American campaign on behalf of liberty that Mr. Bush had launched in 2003 had been called off. A new Iraqi democracy, midwifed by American power, was fighting for its life. The Obama administration would keep Iraq at arm's length.

This break of faith with democracy was put on cruel display in the summer of 2009, when the Iranians rose in revolt against their rulers. True, American diplomacy was not likely to alter the raw balance of power between the regime and its democratic oppositionists. But the timidity of American power, and the refusal of the Obama administration to embrace the cause of the opposition, must be reckoned one of American foreign policy's great moral embarrassments. . .   [more . . .]

Me:  Mr. Ajami goes on to talk about Syria, Lebananon, and Tunisia in this article.   But I wanted to record Ajami's assessment of President Obama's inexplicable and shameful failure to support the 2009 uprising.  Though it struck me forcefully at the time, it seemed that Obama's silence never received the attention it deserved.  Now the distinguished Fouad Ajami offers his opinion, and explains how the ebb of Americn power continues to affect the Middle East.

(Ajami is a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. )

Update 1/20/11 - Regarding the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to Washington, Ellen Bork notes that awarding the Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo

undermined the carefully cultivated image of a legitimate regime in full control of, and tacitly accepted by, its people.  Chinese leaders fear international support for individuals who are brave and stubborn enough to work for a democratic alternative to the Communist party. . . .

On January 13, he [President Obama] did meet at the White House with a group of experts and activists on China. But people who would have offended Chinese leaders — people like Harry Wu, the former prisoner of China's laogai or forced labor camps; Rebiya Kadeer, the exiled Uighur leader; Ngawang Sandrol, a Tibetan nun jailed and tortured for her songs of praise for the Dalai Lama; Wang Juntao, a former Tiananmen protester; or Wan Yanhai, a famous AIDS activist and longtime associate of Liu Xiaobo — they were absent.

The president's determination to avoid using the weight and prestige of his office to support democratic opponents of authoritarian regimes in China, Iran, Belarus, and elsewhere is quickly becoming a hallmark of his administration. It's a dispiriting trend. And it suggests that the president simply does not grasp the meaning and potential of Liu Xiaobo and his fellow Chinese democrats.  (my emphases)

Update #2 - Washington Post editorial - "President Obama makes Hu Jintao Look good on rights"

DENNIS PRAGER - "THE SPEECH PRESIDENT OBAMA WON'T GIVE IN EGYPT"

Prager does it again!   What he does is offer a brilliant recital of American suffering at the hands of Islam.  And then he recounts America's consistent, generous responses to Muslims both at home and abroad.  Will Obama give anything like the speech Prager prepared for him?  No.  That's why the article is titled "The speech President Obama won't give in Egypt."  But you've got to read it.  You won't find a better summation of American-Islamic relations anywhere.

WILL OBAMA'S CAIRO SPEECH TORPEDO DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

Obama blunders, worshipers adore, and few there be who see with clarity.  At least such would be the opinion of Amir Taheri.  His column in the Times Online today is titled, "Barack Obama is blind to his blunders over Islam" and carries the subtitle, "The new President's approach discourages change in Middle Eastern countries that need it most."

Taheri has lots to say, and the following excerpts do not do justice to his entire article.  You need to read the whole thing.  As most people know, Obama has scheduled an “historic address to the Muslim world” to be delivered in Cairo on Thursday.  Taheri points out reasons why the date is rich in symbolism, and then proceeds to explain why the speech is full of political implications as well:

Obama is the first major Western leader, after Bonaparte, to address Islam as a single bloc, thus adopting the traditional Islamic narrative of dividing the world according to religious beliefs. This ignores the rich and conflict-ridden diversity of the 57 Muslim-majority nations and fosters the illusion, peddled by people such as Osama bin Laden and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, that Islam is one and indivisible and should, one day, unite under a caliphate.

Anyone find that troubling?  Why does Obama do these things?  Taheri goes on:

By adopting the key element of the Islamist narrative, that is to say the division of humanity into religious blocs, Mr Obama also intends to send a signal to the Middle East's nascent democratic forces that Washington is abandoning with a vengeance George W. Bush's “freedom agenda”.

Read on for much more. . .